Ethan Anderson

I am Ethan Anderson, a computational geopolitical strategist and AI policy modeler specializing in simulating cascading impacts of technology embargoes. With a Ph.D. in Complex Systems Engineering (MIT, 2023) and a dual Master’s in International Relations (Stanford) and Machine Learning (ETH Zurich), I architect multi-agent AI frameworks to predict how restrictions on AI hardware, algorithms, and data flows reshape global power dynamics. As the Lead Researcher at the Global Tech Policy Simulator (GTPS) and a senior advisor to the OECD’s AI Governance Taskforce, I pioneer data-driven methodologies to turn speculative trade wars into quantifiable risk scenarios. My models underpin the 2024 Brussels Accord on AI Export Controls and inform G7 policy debates on semiconductor supply chain resilience.

Research Motivation

AI technology embargoes—from chip bans to algorithm blacklists—are emerging as 21st-century economic weapons, yet their systemic consequences remain dangerously understudied:

1. Supply Chain Domino Effects: 78% of AI R&D relies on components from fewer than 5 geopolitical blocs.

2. Innovation Asymmetry: Export controls risk creating "algorithmic deserts" in developing nations, widening the AI divide.

3. Black Market Proliferation: 2024 INTERPOL data shows a 320% surge in smuggled AI training chips, destabilizing global security.

My work addresses these threats by transforming embargo forecasting from guesswork into computational statecraft.

Methodological Framework

My approach integrates multi-agent reinforcement learning, game theory, and computational economics:

1. Multi-Agent System Architecture

• Built EmbargoSim, a digital twin of global AI ecosystems comprising 50,000+ adaptive agents:

  • Corporate Agents: Simulate NVIDIA, TSMC, and startups navigating export compliance.

  • State Agents: Model US-China-EU regulator with dynamic sanction escalation.

  • Illicit Networks: Deep generative adversarial networks (GANs) predict black market adaptation.

• Trained on 15 historical embargo events (e.g., 2023 ASML lithography ban) to replicate real-world feedback loops.

2. Predictive Scenario Engine

• Developed CausalAI, a transformer-based model that:

  • Maps embargo triggers (e.g., AI chip thresholds) to second/third-order effects.

  • Quantifies innovation spillover losses using bibliometric data from 40M patents.

  • Forecasts GDP impacts via neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs).

• Validated against the 2024 South Korea-Japan AI sensor embargo, achieving 89% outcome accuracy.

3. Policy Stress Testing

• Designed EmbargoFire, a red-teaming platform where policymakers:

  • Test embargo "circuit breakers" (e.g., critical infrastructure exemptions).

  • Simulate rare but catastrophic scenarios (e.g., reciprocal cloud compute bans).

  • Optimize multilateral compensation mechanisms using Shapley value allocations.

• Deployed by the ASEAN Joint AI Council to avert $47B in regional losses during the 2024 GPU shortage crisis.

Ethical and Governance Innovations

1. Equity Safeguards

   • Authored the Fair Embargo Framework, mandating impact assessments for low-income nations under WTO’s AI trade rules.

   • Created Algorithmic Reparations: Blockchain-tracked R&D credits compensate embargo-hit countries.

2. Transparency Protocols

   • Introduced Explainable Embargo Audits (XEA):

     • Counterfactual dashboards show how embargoes alter AI publication trends.

     • Attribution models reveal hidden beneficiaries (e.g., Russian AI startups post-2024 sanctions).

3. Anti-Fragility Engineering

   • Partnered with IBM to harden open-source AI tools against component shortages.

   • Proposed Global AI Redundancy Vaults: Distributed repositories of legacy chips and training data for crisis recovery.

Global Impact and Future Trajectories

• 2024 Milestones:

  • Predicted China’s rare earth export retaliation 6 months pre-escalation, enabling EU battery manufacturers to pivot.

  • Prevented a 2024 African AI Winter by advising the AU to adopt localized model compression standards.

• Vision 2026–2030:

  • Quantum Embargo Forecasting: Harnessing photonic quantum computing to model trillion-parameter agent ecosystems.

  • Decentralized AI Sanctions: Developing Web3-based embargo mechanisms with self-executing sunset clauses.

  • Citizen Diplomat Agents: Deploying LLM-powered negotiation bots to crowdsource embargo mitigation strategies.

By transforming AI embargoes from blunt political tools into navigable, data-constrained challenges, I strive to ensure that technological progress remains a shared human endeavor—not a zero-sum battlefield.